NFL Betting Week 1

Week 1 NFL Picks to Live By Who Will Get the Ws?

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By Josh Davis September 10, 2020 0 Comment
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I’ve been kicked out of three pick’em leagues. I keep winning. My system is simple. Now, I give it to you, my Week 1 NFL picks to live by.

THURSDAY, SEPT 10TH, 8:20PM EDT Texans @ Chiefs -9.5

Vegas is giving the Chiefs 9.5 points in this NFL opener vs the Texans. At first, I was amazed by how much this was, but then I thought about it. It’s at home, automatically you get 3, and the Chiefs only added to their arsenal, unlike the Texans. Drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire was somewhat of a coup for Kansas City. Their system seems to love everyone they put in the backfield. To add a talent like CEH to that offense is just insane.

The defense will be better as well, which has been a sticking point to a lot of people when trying to pick these games. My argument is although the Texans are still talented on offense, not having a true number 1 receiver is going to make them one-dimensional. They did add David Johnson to the running game, so that is an upgrade, although Duke is no slouch. Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game, or at least have limited reps. That also limits the offense. Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb will have to pick up the slack. But, will they be enough to make up for the loss of DeAndre Hopkins?

No. Chiefs cover the point spread.

Texans 17

Chiefs 30

You’re getting all of my NFL picks, but only dive deep into a few. It’s Week 1. While some of these games look good on paper, considering the off-season we’ve had, not many will look good on the field. The next game we will look at will be played in Minnesota.

SUNDAY, SEPT 13TH, 1:00PM EDT Packers @ Vikings -2.5

This is one of those games that look really great on the schedule but could fall apart on the field. Just look back at the last two Week 1 games the Packers have played in. Both were against the Bears. Both were extremely sloppy games by each team. I’m not going into detail on either, just trust me. Or look it up. Both games featured an Aaron Rodgers that came out flat, and took late-game heroics to win. The club doesn’t like preseason reps for their starters.

This year nobody got preseason work. No one has been in a game atmosphere. That’s where the run game needs to come up big. This allows the passing game to ease itself into a rhythm. It’s never good when you have to force it. Luckily for both teams, they have a top-level rushing attack.

Vikings running back Dalvin Cook should come into this season with something to prove. He’s looking for that next big contract. While Packers back Aaron Jones is about to get his, deservedly so, Green Bay is not as dangerous in that facet as the purple and gold. Throwing the ball for these two is a bit different, yet somewhat the same. They both need to find that solid second option. Minnesota has Adam Thielen as their number one, and just drafted Justin Jefferson out of LSU, but they traded Stefon Diggs.

Green Bay has Davante Adams, but who is next? Allen Lazard? Marques Valdes-Scantling? Both are good, but one needs to be better than they were last year to really be that guy. This game will be won here, but not decided by the offenses. Defense will tell this tale, and the Vikings have the upper hand. Trading the Jaguars for Yannick Ngakoue sealed that fact. Their secondary is also solid. As are the Packers, but, upfront, more havoc will be produced by Minnesota. Even with Danielle Hunter on short-term IR.

Vikings win, but it won’t be by much.

Packers 17

Vikings 20

SUNDAY SEPT 13TH, 4:25PM EDT Buccaneers @ Saints -3.5

The last of my NFL picks that I will give you an in-depth look at is the Bucs at Saints. I know what I said about games that sound exciting and then flaming out, but this one, I think will be great. Tampa Bay travels across the Gulf to New Orleans in an epic Week 1 matchup between two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play in this league.

Last year, the Saints amassed over 500 yards of offense in Week 1 against a Texans defense that was stingy at times throughout the year. Not great, but they were about the middle of the league. The difference this year with the Saints is they added firepower in the passing game. Added. Weapons. Emmanuel Sanders joins Michael Thomas out wide, with Tre’Quan Smith in the slot. Smith ended up being that second guy last year, although he was still inconsistent.  With Alvin Kamara running the ball, and Bress slinging it, how can defenses stop dem Saints?

Well, the Bucs aren’t the same team we’ve seen over the last several years. I mean, they have come out and beaten the Saints recently, but they weren’t as stacked with talent. This is how I argue with Brees, Kamara, Thomas, and Sanders; Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fournette. Shady McCoy. Rob Gronkowski. They were still able to upgrade that offensive line through the draft with Tristan Wirfs at right tackle.

This game is going to be a shoot out. Both teams have outstanding defenses, and the division has been dwelling in Louisiana, but this is not last year. Whole new squad there in the Bay. Tampa wins without needing the spread. On the road.

Bucs 38

Saints 24

The rest of my NFL picks are listed below, with my winners in bold. Remember, these picks are against the spread, so not all will be straight winners, even if I picked them to win. Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @TheBrawl_Josh. Follow us at The Brawl Network.



Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6)
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)


Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)


Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)


Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (+4.5)
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

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