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UFC Fight Night Breakdown of the card July 18th, 2020

  • Alexandre Pantoja
  • Ariane Lipski
  • Askar Askarov
  • Deiveson Figueiredo
  • Jack Hermansson
  • Joseph Benavidez
  • Kelvin Gstelum
  • Luana Carolina
  • Marc Diakiese
  • Rafael Fiziev
  • Sports Betting
  • UFC
  • UFC Fight Night
By Benjamin Saxton July 17, 2020 0 Comment
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UFC Fight NightCard breakdown. Every fight in order, with detailed analysis, and Vegas odds. Brought to you by A Fighters Chance.

The prelims for UFC Fight Night will air 4:00 pm CDT, followed by the Main card starting 7:00 pm CDT.

All odds Live odds can be found at (


The prelims contain 7 fights, and can only be seen on ESPN and ESPN +

Carlos Felipe (+126) vs Serghei Spivac (-174)

Carlos “Boi” Felipe (8-0) comes into this fight as an unbeaten underdog. This will be his UFC debut and is 25 years young.

Of his 8 wins he KO/TKO six of them. He will be at a 3″ height and 3″ reach disadvantage.

Sergey “The Polar Bear” Spivak (10-2) is coming off a loss from Marcin Tybura back in February of 2020.

Since joining the UFC he has a record of (1-2). While he is a heavyweight he will be looking to take down Felipe, and go for a submission.


I think Spivac takes the victory in this one.

Davi Ramos  (+126) vs Arman Tsarukyan (-205)

Davi “The Tasmanian Devil” Ramos (10-2)  has had six UFC fights with a record of (4-2). He is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev.

His goal in this fight will not be to stand in trade, as he will be looking for takedowns and submissions.

In his career, he has 6 submissions coming in the first round and this might be a nice prop bet.

Arman Tsarukyan (14-2) is coming off a victory over Olivier Aubin and has a UFC record of 1-1.

At Age 23 he will already be coming in with 16  professional fights.  He has five KO/TKO, and five submission victories.

They both recently fought Islam Makhachev and came up short in a unanimous decision loss.


A possible upset here with  Davi Ramos. Maybe take a prop bet submission in the first. He has 5 in the 1st.

Malcom Gordon (+135) vs Amir Albazi (-168)

Malcom “X” Gordan (12-3) is coming into this fight on a four-fight win streak. This will be his UFC debut.

Gordan will try to take the fight to the ground in this one. Half of his victories have come by submission.

Amir “The Prince” Albazi (12-1) will be making his UFC debut. He is coming in with a 92% finish rate.

While he hasn’t competed in the UFC he has competed in Bellator. He will come into this fight with a 2″ height and 3″ reach disadvantage.


I’m going with Amir Albazi in this one.

Brett Johns (+173) vs Montel Jackson (-210)

Brett “The Pikey” Johns (16-2)  is coming off his recent victory of Tony Gravely by Submission. Johns is not going to be some to knock you out with only posting two KO/TKO in 18 fights.

Where he has gotten most of his victory is by submission or decision. Six and eight, respectively.

Since joining the UFC he has a record of (4-2). He lands 3.41 strikes per minute and absorbs 4.74.

Montel “Quick” Jackson (10-1) is on a three-fight win streak and has a UFC record of (3-1).

Jackson will not be looking to take the fight to the ground as he posses KO power. He averages 1.8 takedowns per fight.

Montel will try to utilize his 3″ height and 4.5″ reach advantage.

He lands 3.12 strikes per minute and absorbed an equal amount.


Montel Jackson

Joe Duffy (-350) vs Joel Alvarez (+260)

Joeseph “Irish Joe” Duffy (16-4) is coming off a two-fight loss. Since joining the UFC he has a record of (4-3).

While he has seen success in the UFC he hasn’t had his hand raised since March 2017.

Most of his wins have come from submission.  He has 10 submissions, four KO/TKO and 2 decision victories.

Duffy has faced very good competition in his career, with the likes of submitting Connor McGreggor, and going three rounds with Dustin Poirier.

Joel “El Fenomeno” Alvarez (16-2) is coming off his victory against Danilo Belluardo by TKO.

Alvarez’s game plan will be to take down Duffy and try to submit him. He will have a 4″ height and 4″ reach advantage.


I could be way off on this one but I’m picking an upset by Joel Alvarez.

Grant Dawson (-225) vs Nad Narimani (+195)

Grant “KGD” Dawson (15-1) is on a six-fight win streak. Since joining the UFC he is (3-0). He last fought on February 29th, 2020.

In this matchup, he is going to go for the takedown early and often. He attempts 6 takedowns per 15 min, with a 54% takedown accuracy.

Of his 15 wins, 11 have come by submission.

Nad “Smiler” Narimani (12-3) is coming off a loss to Mike Grundy by TKO. Narimani has 3 fights in the UFC and has a record of (2-1).

Of his 12 wins, five have come from a decision, five from submission, and two from KO/TKO.

He has shown a very good takedown defense at 75%.


I think Grant has been the more active fighter and on a winning streak. If he manages to get the takedown we should see a finish.

Roman Dolidze (-185) vs Khadis Ibragimov (+145)

Roman  Dolidze (6-0) is making his UFC debut. He is unbeaten and on a 6 fight win streak.

All his fights he has managed a victory. Three by KO/TKO, and three by submission.

Khadis Ibragimov (8-2) was unbeaten before coming into the UFC. Since joining he is 0-2.

He has been a more active fighter landing 5.23 strikes per minute but also absorbing 6.


This could end up being a really good fight, with a lot of action. I think Roman continues to roll and stays undefeated.

Main Card

The prelims contain 5 fights and can be seen on ESPN or ESPN+

Alexandre Pantoja #4 (-200) vs Askar Askarov #7 (+165)

Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (22-4) is coming off a victory against Matt Schnell by KO (Punches). He has had eight UFC fights with a record of (6-2)

Pantoja has shown he can win from all areas making him the #4 contender.

Of his 22 wins, eight have come from KO/TKO, eight have come from submission, and six by decision. He is more active landing 4.58 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.53.

Askar “Bullet” Askarov (11-0-1) is coming off a nice decision win against Tim Elliott.


I think Pantoja is more active and ends up winning a decision.

Ariane Lipski  (-126) vs Luana Carolina (+100)

Ariane “Violence Queen” Lipski (12-5) is coming off her first victory in the UFC against Isabela de Padua.

Prior to that, she lost her first two fights in the UFC.

She has averaged 3.53 strikes per minute, compared to her absorbing 5.67. This is the main reason she has lost decisions.

Luana “Dread” Carolina (6-1) Since losing her first professional fight she has not lost. She is on a six-fight win streak.

She won her UFC debut last year over Priscilia Cachoeira.


Luana doesn’t have the experience as Ariane but they do have a common opponent Isabela de Padua. Luana was able to finish her and hasn’t lost in 5 years. She is my pick.

Marc Diakiese (-165) vs Rafael Fiziev (+135)

Marc “Bone Crusher” Diakiese (14-3) is riding a two-fight win streak. In his UFC career, he has a record of (5-3).

One of his losses came to the hands of Dan Hooker by submission in the third round.  He will have a 2″ height advantage.

Marc has seemed successful when he is able to land bombs and KO/TKO his opponents. Of his 14 wins, he has six KO/TKO, and seven decisions, and one submission.

Rafael “ATAMAN” Fiziev (7-1) is coming off a victory over Alex White. He is (1-1) in the UFC.

Fiziev has usually tried to win with his hands so this should be a very interesting fight.


I think Marc gets a KO.

Jack Hermansson#4 (-112) vs Kelvin Gstelum #7 (-112)

Jack “The Joker” Hermansson (20-5) is coming off a loss to Jared Cannonier. He has a UFC record of (7-3) making him the #4 Middleweight.

Of his 20 wins, he has finished 80% of them. 11 by KO/TKO and five by submission. He rarely leaves it to the judge’s decision.

He is coming in with a 4″ height, and 6″ reach advantage.

What has been really impressive is he lands 4.9 strikes per minute but only absorbs 1.77. He is very good a defense and keeping the distance.

Kelvin Gastelum (15-5-1) is coming into this fight on a two fight losing streak. His last fight was a split decision loss to Darren till.

Since joining the UFC he has a record of (10-5-1). Gastelum has never been KO/TKO in his career.


I think this has the opportunity to be fight of the night. If you look at the losses by Gastelum, they are by some really big names and some are split decision. I think Gastelum finds a way to be more active and does enough to get the victory.

Deiveson Figueiredo #1 (-225) vs  Joseph Benavidez #2 (+180)

Deiveson “Daico” Figueiredo (18-1) Is coming off his TKO victory over Joseph Benavidez. It did miss weight in that fight but I don’t think it changes the outcome.

He is coming off a three-fight win streak and only has one decision loss in his career. He will have a 3″ reach advantage.

Joseph Benavidez (28-6) is trying not to lose back to back losses to Figueiredo. He hasn’t been shy about his disdain for him.

He was dropped in the 2nd round of the last meeting. I think he will look to take this to the ground now, and avoid the power of Figueiredo.


I always say it is hard to beat someone twice but the really good fighters tend to figure it out. I have Figueiredo by TKO in the 4th round.

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