UFC FIGHT NIGHT 173: BRUNSON VS. SHAHBAZYAN

  • Bobby Green
  • Derek Brunson
  • Ed Herman
  • Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Jennifer Maia
  • Joanne Calderwood
  • Kevin Holland
  • Lando Vannata
  • Randy Brown
  • Trevin Giles
  • UFC
  • Vicente Luque
By Benjamin Saxton August 1, 2020 0 Comment

UFC Fight Night Card breakdown. Every fight in order, with detailed analysis, and vegas odds. Brought to you by A Fighters Chance.

The prelims for UFC Fight Night will air at 5:00 pm CDT, followed by the main card starting at 8:00 pm CDT. All live odds can be found at Bestfightingodds.com. The odds listed below are what they also opened at per Action Network.

Statistics per UFC stats

The stats can be found from UFC Stats.

SLpM – Significant Strikes Landed per Minute

Str. Acc. – Significant Striking Accuracy

SApM – Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute

Str. Def. – Significant Strike Defense (the % of opponents strikes that did not land)

TD Avg. – Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes

TD Acc. – Takedown Accuracy

TD Def. – Takedown Defense (the % of opponents TD attempts that did not land)

Sub. Avg. – Average Submissions Attempted per 15 minutes

Prelims:

The prelims contain 6 fights, and can only be seen on ESPN and ESPN +

Chris Gutierrez (-322) vs Cody Durden (+250)

Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez (15-4-1) is coming in as a heavy favorite. He is on a three-fight win streak. Since joining the UFC he holds a record of (3-1). His last fight was May 30th, 2020, and was a unanimous victory over Vince Morales. Of his 15 wins, seven have come from KO/TKO, seven from a decision, and one form submission. He has three losses as well from decisions and has been submitted once. Gutierrez will have a 2″ height advantage but a 3″ reach disadvantage. He remains active while not absorbing a lot of damage. His SLpm is 4.17 while the number of significant strikes landed against him is 2.01

Cody Durden (11-2) is taking this fight on short notice, replacing Luke Sanders. Not only that he will be making his UFC debut. Previous he was fighting for National fighting championship. Cody is on a seven-fight win streak. Of his 11 wins, five have come from KO/TKO, five from submission, and only one by decision. He also has a 90% finish rate. His two losses came as a result of one submission, and one decision. He has never been KO. Cody has good wrestling and has the ability to finish on his feet or the ground.

Prediction: Guitierrez

Jamall Emmers vs Vince Cachero

Jamall “Pretty Boy Emmers” ( 17-5) is coming off his UFC debut loss back in March of 2020. It was a split decision loss to Giga Chikadze. He will be the taller fighter in this one, having a 4″ height advantage.  Of his 17 wins, he has seven KO/TKO, seven decisions, and three submissions as well. Among his five losses, he has two by way of KO/TKO, two by submission, and one by submission. Emmers is usually more active with an SLpM of 4.96 while also having a SApM of 4.35. He hasn’t been taken down in the UFC. Vince Cachero was a late decision.

Prediction: None

Jonny Munoz vs Joseph Nathan Maness

Jonny Munoz is a late addition.

Joseph Nathan “Mayhem” Maness (11-1) is making his UFC debut. His last fight was a KO victory in February 2020 in Hardrock MMA. Breaking down his 11 wins, he has five decisions, four KO/TKO and two submissions. His one loss is by KO.

Prediction: Joseph Maness

Frankie Saenz vs Jonathan Martinez

Frankie Saenz (12-6) is coming off a TKO loss to Marlon Vera back in March of 2019. Since joining the UFC he has 9 fights, with a record of (5-4). Of his 12 victories, he has seven decisions, three KO/TKO, and 2 submissions. His losses consist of three KO/TKO, as well as two decisions. Frankie will be at a disadvantage in this fight from a height and reach perspective.

Frankie is going to try to take this fight to the ground, so Joanathan “Dragon” Martinez is going to have to keep this fight standing. He will have try to control the distance.  He has six KO/TKO, three submissions, and two submissions.

Prediction: None

UFC Fight Night: Main Card

Kevin Holland (-213) VS Trevin Giles (+180)

Kevin “TrailBlazer” Holland (17-5) is coming off a victory against Anthony Hernandez on May 16th, 2020. Since joining the UFC has a record of (4-2) Of his 17 victories, he has eight KO/TKO, six submissions, and three decisions, so that equates to an 82% finish rate. He really has been able to finish from his feet or on the ground. His five losses have resulted in three decisions and two submissions. He has also never been KO/TKO.

When looking at his striking he is usually a little more active with an SLpM of 4.29 and a SApM of 2.56, while his strike accuracy is 55%. He will average around 1.26 TD per 15 min, with a 43% accuracy rate. His striking defense is 56%, and TD defense is 48%.

Trevin “The Problem” Giles (12-2) is coming off a victory against James Krause back in February of 2020. He only has five fights in the UFC and has a record of (3-2). When Trevin gets a victory, he usually finishes his opponent with an 84% finish rate. Of his victors, he has five KO/TKO, five submissions, and two decisions. He only has two losses, but both have come from submission.

Striking accuracy has been about even, with Holland at 56%. He tends to land a little less per minute with an SLpM of 3.61. Where he will have the advantage is the amount he absorbs, since his SApM is 1.75. Holland will average around 1.47 takedowns per 15 min and has a 100% TD accuracy. His striking defense is better than Holland 63%, and TD defense is also better at 73%.

Prediction: Giles

Ed Herman (+155) vs Gerald Meerschaert (-188)

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (25-14-1) is on a two-fight win streak. His last fight was a unanimous decision in November 2019. Since joining the UFC he has a record of (12-10-1). He has managed 25 wins over the course of his career. Of his 25 wins, he has 13 submissions, seven KO/TKO, five decisions. His losses have come by six submissions and five decisions, as well as three KO/TKO. With an accuracy of 49%  he lands 3.33 and absorbs 3.13 per minute.  His TD avg is 2.20 per 15min and has a TD acc of 48%. He also has a TD defense of 59%.

Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (31-13) is coming off a TKO loss to Ian Heinisch in June 2020. Since joining UFC he has a winning record of (6-5). He is only 32 years old compared to 39 of Herman. He has managed 44 professional fights and boasts a 93% finish rate when he wins. Of his 31 victories, 23 have been by submission, 6 by KO/TKO and 2 by decision. His losses are broken down as 8 submissions, three decisions, two KO/TKO. Meerschaert’s strikes land at 42%, so he’s not very accurate. He lands 3.31 and absorbs 3.58 per min while his Str. Def is 51%.  His TD avg is 2.34 with a TD avg of 43%.

Prediction: Meerschaert

Lando Vannata  (-130) vs Bobby Green (+113)

Lando “Groovy” Vannata (11-4-2) is coming off a victory against Yancy Medeiros by decision in February of 2020. Since joining the UFC he has a record of  (3-4-2). They have fought before back in 2017 that resulted in int a split draw. Vannata’s victories have come by five submissions, four KO/TKO, and two decisions. His losses have come by three decisions as well as one submission.

Vannata’s averages a SLpM 4.72 while absorbing about even with a SApM is 4.73. His accuracy is below 50% at 44%. His accuracy is 36%  with a TD avg of 1.15, while his TD defense is 64% and his striking defense is 56%.

Bobby “King” Green (25-10-1) is coming off an impressive win against Clay Guida. Since joining the UFC, he has had 12 fights with a record of (6-5-1). Of his 25 victories, he has nine submissions, eight KO/TKO, and 8 decisions. Most of his losses have come by decision, but two were from KO/TKO as well as two from submission.

Green is a very active fighter with an SLpM of 5.01 and a SApM of 3.52 while having an accuracy of 49%. He only averages 1.19 TD every 15min, and his td accuracy is 31%. His str def is 63% and he also has a good TD def of 74%.

Prediction: Green

Vicente Luque (-175) vs Randy Brown (+150)

Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (18-7-1) is coming off a victory back in May of 2020. Since joining the UFC he has 14 fights with a record of (11-3). Of his 18 victories, he has finished 16 of them by way of  10 KO/TKO as well as 6 submissions. His loss is mainly by decision. He has had five decisions and two submissions losses.

Luque will tend to trade with his opponents. His SLpm is very hight with 5.66 but also his SApM is even higher at 5.79, while his striking accuracy is 53%. Takedowns are not really apart of his game. His strike defense is 52% and his TD defense is 65%.

Randy “Rude Boy” Brown (12-3) is coming off a two-fight win streak. His last fight was November of 2019. He has a UFC record of 6-3. Of his 12 victories, he has six KO/TKO, four submissions, and two decisions. He has one loss to KO/TKO and submission, as well as one to decision. His SLpM is 3.41 and his SApm is 2.42. Brown’s striking accuracy is slightly better than Luque at 55%, and his TD defense is 71%. Takedowns are not really a part of his game.

Prediction: Vincente Luque

Joanne Calderwood (-181) vs Jennifer Maia (+155)

Joanne “JOJO” Calderwood (14-4) coming off a split decision victory back in September of 2019. Her record in the UFC is 6-4. Her 14 victories include eight decisions, five KO/TKO, and one submission. Calderwood’s losses have come by two submissions and two decisions. She tends to be very active with an SLpM of 6.19 and a SApM of 4.31 while also having a strike accuracy of 47%. Her TD avg is 1.85 and has a TD accuracy of 56%. Calderwood’s Striking Def is 53% and her TD defense is 55%.

Jennifer Maia (17-6-1) is also coming off a loss back in November of 2019. Since October of 2o15, her fights have gone the distance. Her UFC record is 2-2. Of her 17 victories total, she has nine decisions, four KO/TKO, and four submissions.

Prediction: Calderwood

Derek Brunson (+205) vs  Edmen Shahbazyan (-247)

Derek Brunson (20-7) is on a two-fight win streak. Since joining the UFC, he is 11-5. His 20 victories contain 11 KO/TKO, six decisions, and three submissions. Brunson’s losses are made up of five KO/TKO’s as well as two decision losses. He has a SLpM of 3.39 and a SApM of 2.91 with a striking average of 54%. Brunson also looks to take it to the ground sometimes with a TD average of 2.8, but his accuracy is only 29%. His striking defense is 54% and TD defense is 100%.

Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0) is unbeaten in his professional career and is only 22 years old. He is 4-0 in the UFC and trying to make a big statement victory in this fight. Shahbazyan’s 11 victories include nine KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision, so he will be looking for a TKO finish. His SLpM is 4.11 and his SApM is 2.16, while his striking accuracy is 52%. His TD Avg is 6.77 per 15min and his TD accuarcy is 40%. Shahbazyan’s striking defense is 62% and his TD defense is 75%.

Prediction: Shahbazyan

 

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