UFC 251 Fight Card Breakdown

UFC 251 Fight Card Breakdown

  • Alexander Volkanovski
  • Amanda Ribas
  • Jessia Andrade
  • Jorge Masvidal
  • Jose Aldo
  • Kamaru Usman
  • Max Holloway
  • Paige Vanzant
  • Petr Yan
  • Rose Namajunas
  • UFC
By Benjamin Saxton July 10, 2020 0 Comment
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July 11th, 2020 the UFC will change forever, as it will be the birth of Fight Island in Abu Dabi for UFC 251.

The early prelims for UFC 251 will air 5:00 pm CDT, followed by the prelims starting 7:00 pm CDT. The main PPV will air at 9:00 pm CDT.

Let’s pray no other fighter comes down with COVID, there are 13 scheduled bouts, with the PPV showcasing 3 champions on the line.

All odds Live odds can be found at (Bovada).

Early Prelims

The early prelims contain 4 fights, and can only be seen on UFC fight pass.

Martin Day (-185) vs Davey Grant (+150)

Martin “The Spartan” Day (8-3) is the slight favorite coming into this fight. This will be his second UFC fight following his debut loss coming by split decision back on Nov 24th, 2018. Since he hasn’t fought in some time, ring rust is a legitimate concern coming into this. Day will have a two-inch height and four and half-inch reach advantage in this fight.

Martin was active in his last fight landing 6.67 significant strikes per min, but he absorbed almost as much.

Davey “Dangerous” Grant (11-4) is coming off a split decision victory against Grigory Popov on Nov 9th, 2019. This will be Grants 5th UFC appearance. Currently, he is 2-3 in the UFC. Of his 11 wins, eight of them have come by submission. Grant will try to take this to the ground and finish by submission.


Coin flip I think Martin works through the ring rust and is able to get his first UFC victory.

Karol Rosa (-250) vs Venessa Melo (+195)

Karol Rosa (12-3) is coming off a three-fight win streak after making her UFC debut last August. She is 25 years young and already has a lot of experience.

Six of her victories have come by decisions, four by KO/TKO, and two by submissions. While the majority have come from a decision, she has proven she can win with her hands or the ground.

Venessa Melo (10-7) has two fight losing streak. Currently, she is (0-2) in the UFC. Of her 10 victories, eight of them have come from decisions.


Karol Rosa gets the victory.

Raulian Paiva #14 (-170) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+140)

Raulian Paiva (19-3) is a slight favorite, despite being the 14th ranked flyweight. He is (1-2) in his last three fights. Paiva is now (1-3) in the UFC, and his last two losses have come from split decisions.

Paiva took a lot of damage in a recent fight against Rogerio Bontorin. He will need to do a better job of defending himself. He has been absorbing an astonishing 7.82 strikes per min.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-3) is making his UFC debut riding a four-fight win streak. Zhumagulov has six career KO/TKO’s victories and possesses the power to finish with one punch.

The matchup might help him in this fight as Paiva is susceptible to damage.


Zhalgas Zhumagulov catches Paiva and wins by TKO.

Marcin Tybura (-115) vs Maxim Grishin (+115)

This fight showcases another UFC debut by Maxim Grishin (30-7-2). He will be going against Marcin Tybura (18-6). Odds have this as a pick’em fight. Marcin has had quite a few UFC fights but has lost four of his last six.


No clue. Let’s hope for a finish.


The prelims contain 4 fights and can be seen on ESPN or ESPN+

Leonardo Santos (-175) vs Roman Bogatov (+145)

Leonardo Santos is coming in as the favorite and is unbeaten in the UFC. He had one draw back in 2014. His last loss was May of 2009! He will have a five-inch height advantage.

Santos has finished three of his last four opponents and is not looking to slow down at UFC 251.

Roman Bogatov (10-0) Is making his UFC debut with an unbeaten record. He has finished 60% of his fights. This is a tough first matchup for Bogatov, but if he can pull it off it will but him on the radar.


I think this is a close good fight but Santos finds a way to win this one.

Marwan Amirkhani (-200) vs Danny Henry (+160)

Marwan “Mr. Finland” Amirkhani (15-4) is coming in as the favorite. Makwan has seven UFC fights under his with five wins. He is not going to look for the KO but will try to take his opponent to the ground.

He hosts a 3.84 takedown average, while only landing 1.75 significant strikes per min.

Danny “The Hatchet” Henry (12-3) should be called the finisher. He suffered a loss from a rear-naked choke by the hands of Dan Ige, but before that, he was on a five-fight win streak.

Henry has finished 10 of his 12 wins. Five by TKO/KO and five submissions. So he finds a way to finish a fight.


Danny Henry

Elizeu Dos Santos (+115) vs Muslim Salikhov (-145)

This fight has a knockout of the night written all over it. Between Muslim and Elizeu they have a combined record of 38-8 with 26 KO/TKO’s.

Both these guys have knock-out power and have a knack of doing it in fantastic fashion.

The stakes are high, and both would like to use this fight to spring them into a contention fight next.


Muslim Salikhov. Grab your popcorn and enjoy the show on this one.

Volkan Oezdemir #7 (-160) vs Jiri Prochazka (+130)

Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir (17-4) is the #7 light heavyweight in the world. He is coming off a two-fight win streak. No one can question the caliber of his opponents as of late, with the likes of Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes.

73% of his wins have been KO/TKO and has a respectable 4.88 significant strikes per minute. Oezdemir grappling is top-notch posting an 80% takedown defense.

Jiri “Denisa” Prochazka (26-3-1) will be making his UFC debut, and what a debut it is. Going against a top ten contender at UFC 251 speaks volumes, of what the UFC thinks he can do.

Jiri has a 88% KO/TKO rate and has two submissions as well.


Volkan wins by KO

We are live! UFC 251 main card

The PPV main event has five fights and can and must be ordered through ESPN+

Amanda Ribas #14 (-850) vs Paige Vanzant (+525)

Amanda Ribas is coming in as the biggest favorite of the UFC 251 fight card. Bosting a record of (9-1) and a four-fight win streak, she has been on a roll.

Her versatility is impressive winning 33% of her fights by KO/TKO, submission and decision. What is really impressive is she manages to land 4.84 significant strikes per min, while only absorbing 1.7.

Paige “12 Gauge” Vanzant (8-4) is coming in losing three of her last five fights. There is a lot on the line for Paige, she can’t keep racking up losses.

She will have a one-inch reach disadvantage. If she was able to pull out a victory, it would be the upset of the night.


I don’t see an upset in this one. Amanda Ribas wins in a decision.

Jessia Andrade #1 (+175) vs Rose Namajunas #2 (-225)

Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade (20-7) is the #1 contender in the Strawweight division, and former champion. She will now have a rematch against the woman she won the belt against Rose Namajunas.

In her last fight, she lost the belt to Weili Zhang and will look to bounce back. Jessica is usually very active landing 6.55 significant strikes per min but will absorb 5.28 strikes per min as well.

Rose “Thug” Namajunas (8-4) is the #2 ranked strawweight in the division, and also a former champion. She will try to revenge her loss to Jessica Andrade. She lost by a KO slam, back in May of last year.


It is hard to beat the same person twice in a row. This should be a close fight but in the end Rose gets her revenge.

Bantamweight Title Bout: Petr Yan #3  (-230) vs Jose Aldo #4 (+180)

This is the first of three title fights at UFC 251. Petr “No Mercy” Yan  (14-1) is unbeaten in the UFC. He is also riding a nine-fight win streak. With his last fight, he finished the California kid Urijah Faber with a head kick.

Petr Lands a lot of strikes at 5.65 per min, while only absorbing 3.15. Petr is a very good striker and will be able to stand in there through with Jose Aldo.

He also has a fantastic chin. He’s never being knocked out or submitted. His only loss came from a decision back in March of 2016.

Jose “Junior” Aldo (28-5) is a legend when it comes to the UFC. He dominated the featherweight division for close to a decade.

Since his loss to Connor Mcgregor, Aldo has hit some adversity losing four of his last six fights. This move to Bantamweight should give him a new fresh challenge and goal. He has come under scrutiny, as many don’t believe he deserves this shot.


Jose Aldo lost a very close decision in his last fight and I think he is going to come out with something to prove. This might look like a terrible pick but if Aldo can use famous leg kicks, he can pull this one out.

Featherweight Title Bout: Alexander Volkanovski (C) (-225) vs Max Holloway #1 (+175)

Alexander Volkanovski (21-1) is on an 18 win fight streak. This is the rematch after defeating Max Holloway in a unanimous decision in December. He is (8-0) in the UFC.

52% of his wins have come from KO/TKO, and 14% from Submissions. He lands 6.15 significant strikes per min and only absorbs 3.14

Max “Blessed” Holloway (21-5) and the #1 contender and former champion Featherweight champion. It is hard to beat someone twice in a row and Max Holloway is going to try to prove that.

He has a huge mountain to climb as Alexander Volkanovski has looked unbeatable in his UFC run. Similar to Volkanovski, Holloway lands 6.66 strikes per min while absorbing just 4.45. His takedown average is .24 per 15min compared to 2.16 to Alexander Volkanovski.


Alexander Volkanovski is just on another level so expect him to retain the belt.

Welterweight Title Bout: Kamaru Usman (C) (-250) vs Jorge Masvidal #3 (+195)

The event that almost didn’t happen after Jorge Masvidal blew his chance for a title fight. Then because of COVID Jorge came in and saved the day (Jorge Save UFC 251).

Kamaru “Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (16-1) is an absolute beast. He is unbeaten in the UFC and is on a 15-fight win streak. He has a 100% takedown defense and is a terrific wrestler.

You have to give him credit for taking this fight on six days notice. He has a lot to lose and wasn’t training for Masvidal. He lands 4.6 strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.17.

Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (35-13) is getting his first title shot at age 35. He is taking this fight on just six days notice. He needs to drop 20+ lbs before weigh-ins.

Kamaru Usman should win this fight, but you can’t help but root for the incredible story it would be if Masvidal pulled off the upset and won the title. Almost a Hollywood caliber script that would be.


Kamaru Usman wins this fight within the distance. There is just too much stacked up against Masvidal.

Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments or on twitter @BenjaminSaxton or @Fighters_Chance

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