Trey Lance NFL Draft Prospect Profile

Trey Lance NFL Draft Profile, Highlights and NFL Comparison

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By Daniel Kitchen March 4, 2021 6 Comment
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Trey Lance is a 2021 NFL Draft QB Prospect

Trey Lance is a quarterback from North Dakota State, and a prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft. Lance began his college career as a 3-star Dual-threat QB who also had FBS offers from Boise State and Western Michigan, but chose to join the Bison at the FCS powerhouse, instead. He was the team’s starter during the 2019 season after taking a redshirt in 2018, and led North Dakota State to its third consecutive FCS Championship, and eighth in nine years. Lance was the first freshman to start Week 1 for the Bison in the program’s history.

In that 2019 season, Lance threw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns against no interceptions, completing 67 percent of his throws (192-287). His 180.6 efficiency led all FCS quarterbacks, and he finished in the level’s Top 5 in yards per attempt, points responsible for, and completion percentage. In addition, Lance was among the FCS leaders in rushing with 1,100 yards on 169 carries (a 6.5 average), and 14 touchdowns, leading the Bison in yardage and touchdowns.

Lance was named the Walter Payton (FCS Heisman) and Jerry Rice (top FCS freshman) Award winner that season, as well as the FCS Offensive Player of the Year by multiple outlets, and was a consensus FCS All-American. He was also the Most Outstanding Player of the FCS Championship Game.

READ MORE: 2021 NFL Draft quarterbacks: Ranking Projected First-Round Picks

If graded among FBS quarterbacks that season, Lance would have been the sixth-best QB overall out of 148 according to Pro Football Focus (with a 20 percent snap minimum applied), with a 90.7 Offense grade. His Passing grade of 88.7 ranked 10th, his Run grade of 76.6 was 14th, and his 69.6 HandsFumble grade was 16th.

Lance played in one fall game for the Bison in 2020, before opting out of the delayed spring FCS season to prepare for the NFL Draft. In that game, against Central Arkansas, Lance completed 15 of 30 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while throwing his only career collegiate interception. He also took 15 carries for 143 yards and another two touchdowns.

READ MORE: The Brawl Network Roundtable 2021 NFL Mock Draft

In the NFL, Lance projects as one of the game’s premiere dual-threat options within his first three seasons, and a potential future franchise quarterback. How he is used by his team as a rookie will be crucial — the athletic gifts and arm talent are there to be a Day 1 starter and Pro Bowler as a rookie, but he has started only one season and played one game since the 2019 playoffs, he has to improve his accuracy on throws that were FCS incompletions but will be NFL interceptions, and limit the number of times he overthrows his targets. The efficiency, arm strength, and running ability are a special package, and there is definite “One of the faces of the entire NFL” ceiling here.

Scouting Capsule

Trey Lance Scouting Capsule

Scouting Capsules compiled by The Brawl Network Draft Analysts Daniel Kitchen and Mitchell Wolfe.

Measurements

At North Dakota State, he was listed at 6’3″, 221. The Bison will be holding their Pro Day on March 12.

Highlights

Positives

  • Powerful arm that plays to all fields, on the run. Can lead a burner into the endzone.
  • Quick release, can get throws off right before taking a shot from a defender.
  • Uncanny pocket presence, has “X-Men” level ability to feel and avoid rushers coming on blind side, can make men miss in a phone booth while still in the pocket. Normally forces two-plus tacklers to combine for a sack.
  • Powerful runner, few LB/DBs will bring down solo in open field, able to run through tackles.
  • Won’t outrun DBs on a 60-yard sideline sprint, but has the feet to get quality yardage in open field, with great start/stop elusiveness that will prevent a lot of tackles.

Weaknesses

  • Accuracy needs to improve to make the jump from FCS to NFL competition. Will throw behind his targets, and put the ball in a contested catch area rather than where only his man can play it.
  • Must improve touch on throws, will use too much power and overthrow players on routes to every level of the field.
  • Struggles to consistently sort through traffic on keepers or when escaping the pocket up the middle.

NFL Comparison

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (2018-Present)

 

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Here to discuss and examine all things NFL Draft. Occasionally sarcastic. Life is better with more scrambling QBs.

6 Comments

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Michael Schottey

March 4, 2021

Tools vs. Tape

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Michael Schottey

March 4, 2021

Them's fightin' words

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Kate Brez

March 4, 2021

Makes Josh Allen look wimpy

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Michael Schottey

March 4, 2021

I haven't seen the Josh Allen comparison before, but I love it.

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Max Derringer

March 4, 2021

And some people want Mac Jones over him .... I will never understand that.

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HunterAHomistek

March 4, 2021

I believe in this guy.

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