Has Carson Wentz Regressed?

By Max Derringer August 12, 2020 4 Comment

Carson Wentz has not played like a MVP-candidate the past two seasons, but has the quarterback regressed?

Carson Wentz was having an MVP-caliber season before tearing his ACL in the Week 13 game vs the Los Angeles Rams. Wentz hasn’t quite lived up to those lofty standards since then. Now there is a narrative that Wentz has regressed to a mid-tier quarterback. That narrative is mistaken as Carson Wentz has performed as a top quarterback in the NFL since his 2017 season ended.

To start we will look at his overall stats since the 2018 season:

Starts	W-L	%	CMP	Att	%	Yards	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rating	Att	Yds	YPC	Tds
27	14-13	51.9%	667	1008	66.2%	7113	48	14	7.1	96.7	96	336	3.5	1

Per Game:

Yds/G	Tds/G	TO/G	TD:TO Ratio
275.9	1.81	1.00	1.81

In terms of general stats among QBs with at least 20 starts since 2018, Carson Wentz ranks:

11th in total completions (4th in per game)
9th in completion percentage
14th in total yards (10th in per game)
14th in total touchdowns (10th in per game)
t-12th in total turnovers (t-14th in per game)
11th in passer rating
7th in TD:INT ratio
12th in TD:TO ratio
8th in bad throw percentage
10th in total air yards (9th in per game)

His overall numbers may not suggest that Wentz is a top quarterback, however, the problem with looking at just the counting stats is that they don’t always give an accurate depiction of quarterback play.
In Carson Wentz’ case these numbers are deceiving and become more impressive when we look at certain factors that impacted his play and also examining the statistical categories where he excelled.

Play-makers

In most cases a quarterback, no matter how good they are, can only be as great as the team around them.

Here is an overview of the offensive talent Wentz has thrown to since 2018:

	Receiving
	GM	REC	YDS	YPC	TD	REC	Yds	TDs
TE   Zach Ertz	26	170	1802	10.6	12	6.5	69.3	0.5
WR   Alshon Jeffery	20	92	1032	11.2	9	4.6	51.6	0.5
TE   Dallas Goedert	26	81	857	10.6	9	3.1	33.0	0.3
WR   Nelson Agholor	22	76	834	11.0	4	3.5	37.9	0.2
RB   Miles Sanders	16	50	509	10.2	3	3.1	31.8	0.2
WR   Jordan Matthews	14	22	321	14.6	2	1.6	22.9	0.1
WR Greg   Ward	7	28	254	9.1	1	4.0	36.3	0.1
	Rushing
	GM	CAR	YDS	YPA	TD	CAR	Yds	TDs
RB   Miles Sanders	16	179	818	4.6	3	11.2	51.1	0.2
RB   Jordan Howard	9	119	525	4.4	6	13.2	58.3	0.7
RB   Josh Adams	11	83	412	5.0	2	7.5	37.5	0.2
QB Carson Wentz	27	96	336	3.5	1	3.6	12.4	0.0

Aside from the tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert (and more recently Miles Sanders) the rest of the above list leaves a lot to be desired. The top receivers Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor have battled injuries and general ineffectiveness for the most part.

It is no secret among Philadelphia Eagles fans that the team has lacked explosive plays and dependable deep threats since the 2017 season ended. What is undersold though is just how bad it has been the past 2 seasons.  In both 2018 and 2019 the WR who was supposed to be the speed threat got injured within the first 2 weeks of the season (Mike Wallace in 2018 and DeSean Jackson in 2019)

The injuries to both players injuries severely limited the Eagles offense in each season as there were no other position players who could threaten the defense over top.  Without a deep threat, the defenses were allowed to condense their coverages closer to the line of scrimmage and while the Eagles have great tight ends, they are not field stretchers. The condensed coverages meant smaller throwing windows and less margin of error for Carson Wentz in both 2018 and 2019.

Another consequence of the defenses player closer to the line of scrimmage is that it allows for limited opportunities for explosive plays and the ability to get yards after catch. This was very apparent in 2019 where the Eagles wide receivers and tight ends had the 32nd YAC per reception in the NFL and the 30^th lowest yards per target.

	Rec	Rank	Yac	Rank	Yac/R	Rank	Yds/Tgt	Rank
2018	343	4	1415	8	4.13	26	7.78	13
2019	304	5	1022	25	3.40	32	6.53	30
Total	644	3	2437	14	3.78	31	7.15	23

Essentially the Eagles WR and TE groups have been catch and fall down specialists the past two seasons as seen by the fact that collectively they have the 3^rd most receptions since 2018 while having the 31^st ranked YAC.

It was so bad that PFF graded the Eagles WR group in 2019: 32^nd in the NFL in overall grade, in yards per route run, in explosive plays and 29^th in deep receiving yards

On top of the general ineffectiveness, the Eagles had the 3^rd highest EPA (expected points added) lost on drops in 2019 as well (Source: Anthony Reinhard)

Offensive Line

The Eagles offensive line has been on of best lines in the league for quite some time, but the unit has also regressed from being top of the league in pass blocking to more middle of the league since 2017. ESPN had the Eagles with the 19^th best pass block win rate in 2019. and Football Outsiders ranked the Eagles 17th in adjusted sack rate in 2018 and 11th in 2019. Since 2018 the Eagles offensive line ranks in the middle of the league in the following categories:

Among Quarterbacks with at least 20 starts since 2018:

	Total	%	Rank
Hits	84	8.33%	15
Pressures	263	26.09%	14
Hurries	111	11.01%	13
Sacks	68	6.75%	11

Some of the pressure rate and hit rate can certainly be attributed to Wentz holding onto the football too long on some plays, but according to NFL Next Gen stats Carson Wentz had a time to throw of 2.66 seconds in 2018 (14^th) and 2.71 seconds in 2019 (10^th) so Wentz is not holding the ball for an excessively long time.

The Eagles offensive line is still one of the best in the league, but the pass locking has not been their strength the past two seasons as their reputation suggests.

The combination of having  bottom tier YAC ability from WR and TE groups, bottom tier wide receiver play, and an offensive line regressing to league average in pass blocking has had an obvious impact on Carson Wentz’ effectiveness and overall counting stats.

Defense

It isn’t just the offense that has regressed since the 2017 season. The defense also has legitimate claim that this is partially due to injuries as they were equally as snake bitten in 2018 as the offense was in 2019.

The defense does not necessarily impact Carson Wentz’ passing performances to the highest degree, but their propensity to allow opposing teams to score quickly has forced the offense to become one dimensional for the majority of in several games.

Since 2018 the Eagles defense has allowed 26 or more points in 40.7% of games Carson Wentz starts. (13^th worst)

Eagles defensive ranks compared to the 2017 season:

	2017	2018	2019
Points Allowed	7	18	15
Pass Yds Allowed	17	31	19
Rush Yds Allowed	1	17	3
Total Yds Allowed	4	29	10
Takeaways	4	25	19
Sacks	16	9	14
Passer Rating Allowed	9	15	19

*2017 & 2018 based on Carson Wentz starts (extrapolated to 16 games)

The good news is that the aforementioned factors have not stopped Carson Wentz from posting impressive numbers in many different statistical categories.

3^rd Down

As with his 2017 season, Carson Wentz has excelled on 3^rd down in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Att	1st Downs	%	Rush Att	1st Downs	%	Sacks	Total %
257	112	43.6%	21	16	76.2%	25	42.2%

Among quarterbacks with 250 or more total 3^rd down plays since 2018, Wentz ranks:

• 8th in passing conversion %
• 4th in rushing conversion % and in total third down conversion %

Wentz’ passing numbers on 3^rd down have also been excellent.

Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Tds	Int	Y/A	Rtg
147	257	57.2%	1624	15	1	6.3	93.9

Since 2018 Wentz has ranked (among quarterbacks with at least 200 third down attempts):

• 10th highest passer rating on 3^rd down
• T-9th in touchdown passes (4^th in TDs per game)
• 2nd best touchdown to interception ratio at 15:1.

It is not just third down where Wentz has been great at converting 1st downs. If you include all downs Wentz ranks 11^th in total conversion % at 34.8%.

Red Zone

Carson Wentz has been one of the best red-zone quarterbacks in the NFL since he was drafted in 2016.

Wentz has maintained his excellent red zone play even after the 2017 season.

Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Tds	Int	Y/A	Rtg
74	124	59.7%	465	37	1	3.8	103.7

Wentz’ red zone ranks since 2018:

10th in completions
7th in completion %
14th in total yards
T-8th in total touchdowns
T-9th in total turnovers
5th in passer rating
4th in TD:INT Ratio
8th in TD:TO Ratio

Vs Over .500 teams

He has performed well, even if his overall record vs winning teams since 2017 hasn’t been the best.

Starts	W-L	%	CMP	Att	%	Yards	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rating	Att	Yds	YPC	Tds
11	3-8	27.3%	267	407	65.8%	2766	18	8	6.8	91.8	69	276	4.0	1

Per Game:

Yds/G	Tds/G	TO/G	TD:TO Ratio
276.5	1.73	1.73	1.00

Among quarterbacks with 350 attempts vs over .500 teams since 2018, Wentz ranks:

6th in completions per game
6th in completion %
14th in yards per game
9th in total touchdowns per game
16th in total turnovers per game
7th in passer rating
5th in TD:INT Ratio
14th TD:TO Ratio

Vs top 10 Pass DVOA

Football Outsiders defines DVOA as “A system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average.”

DVOA is excellent at gauging how well a quarterback played against the top defenses in the NFL.

Carson Wentz has performed at his best against the toughest competition and has performed remarkably well against top 10 defenses the past two seasons.

Starts	W-L	%	CMP	Att	%	Yards	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rating	Att	Yds	YPC	Tds
7	4-3	57.1%	150	235	63.8%	1688	13	2	7.2	100.1	34	157	4.6	0

Per Game:

Yds/G	Tds/G	TO/G	TD:TO Ratio
263.6	1.86	0.71	2.60

Ranks since 2018:

t-13th in completions per game
14th in completion %
7th in yards per game
7th in total touchdowns per game
7th in total turnovers per game
3rd in passer rating
2nd in TD:INT Ratio
7th in TD:TO Ratio

Carson Wentz is one of only three QBs in the NFL with a quarterback rating of over 100 vs top 10 DVOA defenses since 2018 (Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees are the others)

Wentz somehow remained as impressive as ever in the 2019 season despite the limited team around him.

Starts	W-L	%	CMP	Att	%	Yards	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rating	Att	Yds	YPC	Tds
5	3-2	60.0%	105	170	61.8%	1091	8	1	6.4	93.5	23	103	4.5	0

Per Game:

Yds/G	Tds/G	TO/G	TD:TO Ratio
238.8	1.60	0.40	4.00

Wentz’ 2019 ranks:

15th in completions per game
16th in completion %
16th in yards per game
t-10th in total touchdowns per game
3rd in total turnovers per game
3rd in passer rating
t-2nd in TD:INT Ratio
3rd in TD:TO Ratio

Vs top 15 Passing DVOA Defenses

Even increasing the amount of top DVOA defenses to 15, and Wentz would still among the best in the league.

Starts	W-L	%	CMP	Att	%	Yards	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rating	Att	Yds	YPC	Tds
9	5-4	55.6%	210	319	65.8%	2250	16	5	7.1	96.5	43	180	4.2	0

Per Game:

Yds/G	Tds/G	TO/G	TD:TO Ratio
270.0	1.78	1.11	1.60

Ranks since 2018:

12th in completions per game
8th in completion %
11th in yards per game
9th in total touchdowns per game
t-16th in total turnovers per game
4th in passer rating
8th in TD:INT Ratio
12th in TD:TO Ratio

General Defense Categories

It does not matter how you determine what a top defense is Carson Wentz ranks in the top 5 in passer rating for each category against top 10 defenses and in the top 7 against top 15 defenses.

Points allowed

	Starts	W-L	%	Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Td	Int	Y/A	Rtg
vs top 10	11	5-6	45.5%	262	398	65.8%	2879	21	4	7.2	100.5
vs top 15	15	7-8	46.7%	355	536	66.2%	3851	25	8	7.2	96.5

Total yards allowed

	Starts	W-L	%	Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Td	Int	Y/A	Rtg
vs top 10	11	5-6	45.5%	259	389	66.6%	2857	18	3	7.3	100.4
vs top 15	15	6-9	40.0%	355	536	66.2%	3884	24	8	7.2	96.8

Passer rating allowed

	Starts	W-L	%	Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Td	Int	Y/A	Rtg
vs top 10	11	6-5	54.5%	262	394	66.5%	2806	20	4	7.1	99.9
vs top 15	12	7-5	58.3%	279	423	66.0%	2995	21	4	7.1	96.2

Passing yards allowed

	Starts	W-L	%	Cmp	Att	%	Yds	Td	Int	Y/A	Rtg
vs top 10	8	4-4	50.0%	188	284	66.2%	2080	12	2	7.3	98.9
vs top 15	13	6-7	46.1%	311	466	66.7%	3440	24	5	7.4	101.2

Comparing to 2017 Season

In most of the above categories Carson Wentz compares favorably to his 2017 season.

vs Top Defenses

Points allowed

	2017						2018-2019
	Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg		Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg
vs top 10	234.5	59.7%	2.0	0.0	100.9		261.7	65.8%	1.9	0.4	100.5
vs top 15	261.6	57.4%	2.3	0.4	95.7		256.7	66.2%	1.7	0.5	96.5

Total yards allowed

	2017						2018-2019
	Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg		Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg
vs top 10	224.0	62.6%	3.2	0.2	115.4		259.7	66.2%	1.6	0.3	100.4
vs top 15	243.9	61.5%	2.6	0.3	106.2		258.9	66.7%	1.6	0.5	96.8

Passer rating allowed

	2017						2018-2019
	Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg		Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg
vs top 10	291.2	61.9%	2.4	0.8	100.1		255.1	66.5%	1.8	0.4	99.9
vs top 15	299.0	61.5%	2.6	0.9	100.9		249.6	66.0%	1.8	0.3	99.2

Passing yards allowed

	2017						2018-2019
	Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg		Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg
vs top 10	265.2	62.6%	2.3	0.5	103.7		260.0	66.2%	1.5	0.3	98.9
vs top 15	261.2	61.5%	2.8	0.6	106.7		264.6	66.7%	1.8	0.4	101.2

vs Over .500 teams

2017						2018-2019
Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg		Yds/G	%	TD/G	INT/G	Rtg
267.3	56.4%	2.2	0.5	93.5		251.5	65.8%	1.6	0.7	91.8

 Total down conversion %

2017									2018-2019
Pass Att	1st Downs	%	Rush Att	1st Downs	%	Sacks	Total %	.	Pass Att	1st Downs	%	Rush Att	1st Downs	%	Sacks	Total %
440	162	36.8%	52	27	51.9%	28	36.3%		1006	372	37.0%	80	30	37.5%	68	34.8%

Red Zone

2017									2018-2019
Cmp	Att	%	Yds	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rtg	.	Cmp	Att	%	Yds	TDs	Ints	Y/A	Rtg
37	57	64.9%	277	23	0	4.9	116.0		74	124	59.7%	465	37	1	3.8	103.7

Conclusion

The narrative surrounding Carson Wentz needs to change.

Carson Wentz’ overall play remains in the the top 10 for quarterbacks. Considering the circumstances, it should be considered impressive for Wentz to rank in the top 10 in most of the above statistical categories.

It is true that Wentz is not without blame for the Eagles inconsistent play. First and foremost Wentz must stop fumbling the football. Aside from the fumbling issues Wentz has inconsistent footwork which can lead to sporadic accuracy issues. Wentz also tends to press and get too aggressive when the team gets behind. Wentz must also learn to protect himself and learn give up when a play is dead.

If Wentz works on those issues he can perform even better and that’s a good thing. The perception around Wentz may be that he is not the quarterback he once was. The reality is that Wentz is a top 10 quarterback with an arrow trending upwards.

The team must stay healthy and the new players must prove effective. Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles can reach new heights if that happens.

To answer the question of has Carson Wentz regressed? The answer is no.

 

(Statistical Sources: Profootballreference.com, footballoustiders.com)