Hunt

Brawl Fantasy Football Focus: Chubb vs Hunt

  • 2020 nfl
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Dalvin Cook
  • dynasty football
  • Fantasy Football
  • Kareem Hunt
  • Kenyan Drake
  • Miles Sanders
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Nick Chubb
By David Opperman July 12, 2020 0 Comment

With one of the leagues best duos in the backfield, can Browns RBs Nick Chubb and Kareen Hunt both be fantasy options in 2020?

Nick Chubb Week 1-9

As Kareem Hunt served an 8 game suspension, Nick Chubb ranked 6th among running backs in PPR formats. Chubb, being the focal point of the Browns offense, averaged 5.2 ypc and 4 targets per game. Notably, he faced 6 top 11 defenses averaging 5.6 ypc while week 8 averaging 6.5 ypc versus Patriots 4th ranked run defense. He proved as a reliable workhorse running back rushing the ball on average 19 attempts per game.

Upon Hunt’s return, he saw a slight drop in production placing ranked 15th among running backs. Chubb’s average 19 ppg dropped to 15 ppg the second half of the season. Although his 5.2 ypc dropped, Chubb still ranked among the leagues best averaging 4.8 ypc. The truly noticeable drop was in the passing game where he went from 4 targets per game to 1. While that doesn’t seem too drastic of a drop, 3 additional touches offensively could result in a 7-13 point swing.

The concerning part of Hunt’s return was the consistency in production. During that 8 game stretch, Chubb didn’t reach a double-digit point output 4 times especially during league championships. In comparison, the first 8 weeks, Chubb scored 20 or more points 3 times as he averaged 19 ppg. ┬áHe scored in the double-digit range every game while being relied upon in a struggling offense. Then, after the offense changed with Hunt inserted, this all changed dropping from the 6th overall running back to 15th.

Kareem Hunt

Prior to his release from the Chiefs, Kareem Hunt was a top 5 running back averaging 20 ppg in that Chiefs offense. In 2018 he was well on his way to another 60 plus reception season like his 2017 year before release. The 2019 season would have been no different without the suspension as he accounted for 45 targets in 8 games. What’s also remarkable is in just 8 games he was the 4th most targeted player on the offense for the Browns.

What’s the most realistic outlook for Hunt in the 2020 season? As some projections will say, Hunt will receive approximately 95 targets on the season but that might be too optimistic. Also Considering Jarvis Landry and OBJ will roughly account for 50% of the total targets this season alone. Add in the acquisition of Austin Hooper, that would roughly leave approximately 120 targets for the remaining roster. Excluding Hunt and Chubb, the roughly 30% of the remaining targets (84) will be accounted for by the remaining roster.

A frame of reference for Kevin Stefanski’s offensive scheme is how he utilized Dalvin Cook (63 targets) last season. Running a primary two TE set, which calculates Hooper at 90 targets, he’ll utilize Hunt more in the passing game. Knowing Chubb will be the primary feature back and could very well receive roughly 20 targets alone, Hunt should project more around 60 targets.

Chubb and Hunt Co-exist???

The Vikings had 70 more rushing attempts as a team than the Browns in 2019 under Kevin Stefanski. Yes that’s a subjective number as each team’s season was far different but there is a point coming. The Browns, behind Chubb and Kevin Stefanski’s scheme, should be very capable of running the ball with high success. As the Browns are likely to run more, Chubb’s last seasons 298 rushing attempts most likely won’t increase by much. Of the potential 70 remaining attempts, Hunt should easily exceed his 44 attempts last season.

With that said, it’s realistic to see Nick Chubb amassing 300 rushing attempts and 20 receptions in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. As a comparison, Derrick Henry had 303 attempts for 1,539 yards (15 TDs) and 18 receptions for 206 yards (2 TDs) in 2019. So Chubb averaging 4.7 ypc, the reasonable projection could be 1,400 yards rushing and 10 TDs making him still an RB1.

Looking at Kareem Hunt and Kevin Stefanski’s plans to utilize him we still go back to Dalvin Cook from last season. The remaining 84 targets mentioned earlier and the roughly 70 rushing attempts, Hunt should produce roughly as the 20th best running back. The safe low-end projections for Hunt should look 60 attempts for 300 yards (3 TDs) and 60 receptions for 500 yards (3 Tds). The high-end projections would have Hunt receiving more targets from the aforementioned 30% to remaining WRs on the roster. That projection could see Hunt amass an additional 200 yards receiving (2 TDs) and placing him near the top 10 of running backs.

Final Fantasy Thought

The safest pick of the two will be Nick Chubb and his ADP of 1.10 in 12 team PPR (1 QB) leagues is perfect value. Chubb is certainly an RB1 and a lock first-round pick in PPR (1 QB) leagues plus dynasty startups. Do not undervalue him nor overthink the situation of Hunt sharing the backfield. The potential value pick though is easily Kareem Hunt with his ADP being 6.08 in PPR (1 QB) leagues. Miles Sanders ADP of 2.01 and Kenyan Drake ADP of 3.05, Kareem Hunt drafted at 6.08 potentially gives you a 2nd or 3rd round value in the 6th round. As there’s less certainty in Hunt than Chubb, the question shouldn’t be should I draft Hunt but how early. Yes, Chubb and Hunt can and will co-exist to produce 2 very valuable fantasy running backs in PPR (1 QB) leagues.

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