Roger Goodell stands at the podium at the 2018 NFL Draft

Assessing First Round Quarterbacks from 2015-2019

  • #NFLDraft
  • 2018 NFL Draft
  • 2019 NFL Draft
  • 2021 NFL Draft
  • Adam Gase
  • AFC East
  • arizona cardinals
  • Baker Mayfield
  • baltimore ravens
  • Buffalo Bills
  • carson wentz
  • Chicago Bears
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Daniel Jones
  • deshaun watson
  • Dwayne Haskins
  • houston texans
  • Jameis Winston
  • Jared Goff
  • Josh Allen
  • josh rosen
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Kyler Murray
  • lamar jackson
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Mitchell Trubisky
  • New York Giants
  • New York Jets
  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Sam Darnold
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Tennessee Titans
  • The Washington Football Team
  • Todd Bowles
By Andy Davies January 3, 2021 0 Comment
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The 2020 regular season is almost over, with the final game week on Sunday. As we see every year, certain teams in the NFL are currently evaluating draft picks along with the quarterback position as to who they want to draft in April.

Right or wrong, quarterbacks are most frequently taken in the first round. As quarterback is the most important position on the field, teams tend to overvalue them. This pushes otherwise possibly undeserving players higher in the draft, occasionally putting them in bad situations. Let’s take a look at some of the first-round quarterback picks over the past six drafts.

2015 First Round QBs: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota

Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though he also led the league in interceptions. He has had off-field issues, maturity issues and currently backs up both Drew Brees and Taysom Hill in New Orleans.

Marcus Mariota disappointed as a starter with the Tennessee Titans but he’s found success as well. He has still managed to throw for 77 touchdowns and 45 interceptions in his career and looks like one of the league’s better backups with the Las Vegas Raiders. He has shown maturity and has a bigger market than Winston in free agency.

2016 First Round QBs: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz

Jared Goff took the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl in the 2018 season and he remains a starter for the Rams who have playoff hopes this season. The Rams’ playoffs hopes are in jeopardy with an injury to Goff’s thumb that he just had surgery on this past week. Goff has shown plenty of talent during his time in the NFL. But concerns still surround Goff, particularly after his dreadful display in Super Bowl 53 and his erratic performances in 2020.

Carson Wentz was the front runner for MVP in 2017 for the Philadelphia Eagles. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the same since an injury ended his MVP hype, though he does have a Super Bowl ring thanks to Nick Foles. To make matters worst, Jalen Hurts has most likely taken his job. Wentz has shown plenty of potential throughout his time in Philadelphia but injuries have hindered his development.

2017 First Round QBs: Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson

Mitchell Trubisky was the first quarterback taken off the board but has had issues in Chicago. He’s lost the starting job multiple times, only to be given second chances. The Bears are likely to move on this offseason if they can get their hands on one of the top options in this year’s draft. With that being said, Trubisky has experienced a resurgence in recent weeks. If the Bears get the final wildcard spot, they may decide to give him another year. If they miss out, then Trubisky’s time is certainly over as a starter at Soldier Field.

Deshaun Watson has been a hit, and the dumpster fire in Houston isn’t his fault. He continues to perform despite the way the franchise continues to run itself. The Texans continue to waste his tremendous potential.

Patrick Mahomes is arguably the best player in the entire NFL and has the potential to be the ‘GOAT’. He’s already got an NFL MVP and a Super Bowl under his belt, doing so before he lost a game by more than 7 points. He is also the first player to sign a contract of over $500M. Right now, it looks like he will win multiple championships for the Kansas City Chiefs.

2018 First Round QBs: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP last season and is getting back to form at the right time this season. No AFC team will want to face the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs. Baltimore traded back into the first round and selected him 32nd overall. Jackson said after he was selected, that “They’re gonna get a Super Bowl out of me, believe that.” Judging by how his career has gone so far, Jackson may be on to something.

This season, Josh Allen led Buffalo Bills to their first AFC East in 25 years and broken multiple franchise records set by Jim Kelly. The Bills traded up to seventh overall to select him. Allen rewarded that faith, and he has Buffalo fans dreaming of a Super Bowl appearance.

Baker Mayfield has had his ups and downs but is far from a bust. The number one overall pick out of Oklahoma gave hope to Cleveland Browns fans after an impressive rookie season. Baker had a difficult year in 2019 but has shown improvement in 2020. He will hope for a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. Victory will mean that Mayfield will be the first Browns quarterback to start a playoff game since 2003.

Sam Darnold has shown glimpses but has been dealt a bad hand in head coaches Todd Bowles and Adam Gase. The New York Jets may move on from Darnold, but the third overall pick in the 2018 draft will most likely have suitors. Wherever he lands, he will need the right personnel around him to succeed.

Josh Rosen is considered a bust and is already on his fourth team. After the Arizona Cardinals selected him 10th overall, they eventually traded him to the Miami Dolphins. But he was cut after one year, spent time on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ practice squad, before signing with the San Francisco 49ers. Rosen may have a chance to resurrect his career with the 49ers, but he’s most likely on his last leg.

Can Josh Rosen Save His Career?

2019 First Round QBs: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins

Dwayne Haskins was seen as a real steal when he was drafted 13th overall by the Washington Football Team. But he has not lived up to expectations. He still has time to rejuvenate his career, but this looks unlikely to happen. Haskins may get opportunities but only as a backup. His chances of being a regular NFL starter again appears all but gone.

NFL’s Next Great Bust: Two Comparisons for Dwayne Haskins

Kyler Murray was the number one pick, taken by the Arizona Cardinals just one year after they drafted Rosen tenth overall. Murray continues to excite the league as he proves his worth as number one overall. His hail mary pass to DeAndre Hopkins against the Bills earlier this year is arguably the play of the season.

Daniel Jones was drafted sixth overall, which was met with anger from New York Giants fans who felt they could have got him later in the draft. During his time in the NFL, Jones has shown he can be a capable quarterback, but not worthy of a sixth overall pick.

Conclusion

From the 2015 NFL Draft through the 2019 NFL Draft, fifteen quarterbacks were selected in the first round. From those fifteen, four are no longer on the roster of the team that drafted them (Winston, Mariota, Rosen, and Haskins). At least two more appear to be on their way out as well (Wentz, Trubisky, Darnold). Four received major contract extensions (Goff, Wentz, Mahomes, and Watson). Three have reached the Super Bowl (Wentz*, Goff, and Mahomes) and two have won NFL MVP (Mahomes and Jackson).

As with most things, first-round quarterbacks provided mixed results so far in the NFL. Some have been presented with difficult opportunities and situations to start their career (Rosen, Darnold), while others made poor decisions that significantly reduced their career prospects (Haskins). Nevertheless, do not expect teams to stop picking first-round quarterbacks.

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